If you take the five opinion polls that were conducted in the last week or so of the campaign, they suggest that on average the SNP are running at 49% on the constituency vote, although much lower – about 38% – on the list.
The Conservatives are narrowly ahead of Labour – about 22% Conservatives to 21% for Labour on the constituency vote – but the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable four-point lead on the list vote and that’s going to be the crucial one so far as seats are concerned.
If you take all of those numbers and you do the dangerous game of trying to predict what the outcome might be, you get to 64 SNP seats – which really means there is a 50% chance the SNP will get an overall majority, but equally a 50% chance that they might fail.
Indeed, it’s probably all going to turn on the outcome in nine really marginal, opposition held seats – some held by Conservative, some held by Labour – but all with majorities of less than five points.
If the national polls are roughly right, it is a question of how many of those seats the SNP manage to pick up and that’s one of the things you really cannot tell from national polls, whether that’s going to happen or not.